Lower Leg Injury Reference Values and Risk Curves from Survival Analysis for Male and Female Dummies: Meta-analysis of Postmortem Human Subject Tests

Objective: Derive lower leg injury risk functions using survival analysis and determine injury reference values (IRV) applicable to human mid-size male and small-size female anthropometries by conducting a meta-analysis of experimental data from different studies under axial impact loading to the foot–ankle–leg complex.

Methods: Specimen-specific dynamic peak force, age, total body mass, and injury data were obtained from tests conducted by applying the external load to the dorsal surface of the foot of postmortem human subject (PMHS) foot–ankle–leg preparations. Calcaneus and/or tibia injuries, alone or in combination and with/without involvement of adjacent articular complexes, were included in the injury group. Injury and noninjury tests were included. Maximum axial loads recorded by a load cell attached to the proximal end of the preparation were used. Data were analyzed by treating force as the primary variable. Age was considered as the covariate. Data were censored based on the number of tests conducted on each specimen and whether it remained intact or sustained injury; that is, right, left, and interval censoring. The best fits from different distributions were based on the Akaike information criterion; mean and plus and minus 95% confidence intervals were obtained; and normalized confidence interval sizes (quality indices) were determined at 5, 10, 25, and 50% risk levels. The normalization was based on the mean curve. Using human-equivalent age as 45 years, data were normalized and risk curves were developed for the 50th and 5th percentile human size of the dummies.

Results: Out of the available 114 tests (76 fracture and 38 no injury) from 5 groups of experiments, survival analysis was carried out using 3 groups consisting of 62 tests (35 fracture and 27 no injury). Peak forces associated with 4 specific risk levels at 25, 45, and 65 years of age are given along with probability curves (mean and plus and minus 95% confidence intervals) for PMHS and normalized data applicable to male and female dummies. Quality indices increased (less tightness-of-fit) with decreasing age and risk level for all age groups and these data are given for all chosen risk levels.

Conclusions: These PMHS-based probability distributions at different ages using information from different groups of researchers constituting the largest body of data can be used as human tolerances to lower leg injury from axial loading. Decreasing quality indices (increasing index value) at lower probabilities suggest the need for additional tests. The anthropometry-specific mid-size male and small-size female mean human risk curves along with plus and minus 95% confidence intervals from survival analysis and associated IRV data can be used as a first step in studies aimed at advancing occupant safety in automotive and other environments.     

The role of rural communities in the transition to a low-carbon Scotland: a review

The Scottish Government is committed to carbon reduction targets which are the most ambitious across the devolved administrations of the UK. Whilst Scotland operates within broader international and UK policy contexts, it has developed particular programmes and approaches to engage communities in the transition towards low-carbon futures. Rural areas have a role in the transition to a low-carbon Scotland; however, beyond land use and agriculture contributions, little research has explored the “rural” dimension of “low-carbon” transitions. The paper presents a policy and literature review relating to the low-carbon agenda in Scotland. It reflects on Scottish low-carbon policy and governance, the positioning of “rural communities” within this, and the opportunities and challenges this might present. Based on this, we develop an understanding of how rural communities may contribute to a low-carbon Scotland and identify a future research agenda to explore in more detail the nature and relative effectiveness of diverse governance structures to support this.     

Collaborative environmental planning in river management: an application of multicriteria decision analysis in the White River Watershed in Vermont

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides a well-established family of decision tools to aid stakeholder groups in arriving at collective decisions. MCDA can also function as a framework for the social learning process, serving as an educational aid in decision problems characterized by a high level of public participation. In this paper, the framework and results of a structured decision process using the outranking MCDA methodology preference ranking organization method of enrichment evaluation (PROMETHEE) are presented. PROMETHEE is used to frame multi-stakeholder discussions of river management alternatives for the Upper White River of Central Vermont, in the northeastern United States. Stakeholders met over 10 months to create a shared vision of an ideal river and its services to communities, develop a list of criteria by which to evaluate river management alternatives, and elicit preferences to rank and compare individual and group preferences. The MCDA procedure helped to frame a group process that made stakeholder preferences explicit and substantive discussions about long-term river management possible.     

Managing Protected Areas Under Climate Change: Challenges and Priorities

The implementation of adaptation actions in local conservation management is a new and complex task with multiple facets, influenced by factors differing from site to site. A transdisciplinary perspective is therefore required to identify and implement effective solutions. To address this, the International Conference on Managing Protected Areas under Climate Change brought together international scientists, conservation managers, and decision-makers to discuss current experiences with local adaptation of conservation management. This paper summarizes the main issues for implementing adaptation that emerged from the conference. These include a series of conclusions and recommendations on monitoring, sensitivity assessment, current and future management practices, and legal and policy aspects. A range of spatial and temporal scales must be considered in the implementation of climate-adapted management. The adaptation process must be area-specific and consider the ecosystem and the social and economic conditions within and beyond protected area boundaries. However, a strategic overview is also needed: management at each site should be informed by conservation priorities and likely impacts of climate change at regional or even wider scales. Acting across these levels will be a long and continuous process, requiring coordination with actors outside the “traditional” conservation sector. To achieve this, a range of research, communication, and policy/legal actions is required. We identify a series of important actions that need to be taken at different scales to enable managers of protected sites to adapt successfully to a changing climate.     

Seasonal and diel variation in movement rhythms of sand dollar, Peronella lesueuri (Valenciennes 1841), in Cockburn Sound, Western Australia

Rates and direction of movement in the sand dollar Peronella lesueuri were measured in summer and winter in Cockburn Sound, a large coastal embayment in south-western Australia. P. lesueuri was found to have a diurnal activity pattern throughout the year and had a greater movement rate in the summer (mean of 5.3 cm h^?1, day; 3.9 cm h^?1, night) than in the winter (mean of 2.7 cm h^?1, day; 2.0 cm h^?1, night). Seasonal change in temperature and physiological requirements by the sand dollar are the most likely reason for the seasonal differences. Reasons for diurnal variation were not clear. Direction of movement was found to be random at both times of the year. Based on these movement rates, one sand dollar can bioturbate an approximate area of 0.1 m² day^?1 and 36.4 m² year^?1. At a conservative density estimate of 0.5 sand dollars per m² it takes approximately 20 days for the sand dollars to rework the entire area of the sediments in the habitats they occupy.     

The use of multiple tracers for tracking wastewater discharges in freshwater systems

The assessment of potential impacts of wastewater effluent discharges in freshwater systems requires an understanding of the likely degrees of dilution and potential zones of influence. In this study, four tracers commonly present in wastewater effluents were monitored to compare their relative effectiveness in determining areas in freshwater systems that are likely to be impacted by effluent discharges. The four tracers selected were the human pharmaceutical carbamazepine, anthropogenic gadolinium, fluorescent-dissolved organic matter (fDOM), and electrical conductivity (EC). The four tracers were monitored longitudinally in two distinct freshwater systems receiving wastewater effluents, where one site had a high level of effluent dilution (effluent <1 % of total flow) and the other site had a low level of effluent dilution (effluent ～50 % of total flow). At both sites, the selected tracers exhibited a similar pattern of response intensity downstream of discharge points relative to undiluted wastewater effluent, although a number of anomalies were noted between the tracers. Both EC and fDOM are non-specific to human influences, and both had a high background response, relative to the highly sensitive carbamazepine and anthropogenic gadolinium responses, although the ease of measuring EC and fDOM would make them more adaptable in highly variable systems. However, the greater sensitivity and selectivity of carbamazepine and gadolinium would make their combination with EC and fDOM as tracers of wastewater effluent discharges highly desirable to overcome potential limitations of individual tracers.     

Conservation of the Toromiro Tree: Case Study in the Management of a Plant Extinct in the Wild

Abstract: We reviewed the history and conservation of Sophora toromiro , a species that has been extinct in the wild since 1960 but has survived as scattered individuals in botanic gardens and private collections. The short-term conservation of S. toromiro is dependent on the management of surviving ex situ stocks. This is being achieved through international collaboration by a working group established to coordinate the conservation management of the species. Molecular evidence indicates that the species retains greater genetic variability than expected. The greatest amount of genetic variability was located in specimens outside botanic garden collections. No unmodified natural habitat survives on Rapa Nui ( Easter Island); so opportunities to establish a viable wild population are limited. Evidence from past reintroductions indicates that the best short-term opportunity for the species is through conventional horticultural management in botanic gardens and traditional farm plots on Rapa Nui. Some extinct-in-the-wild taxa (sensu World Conservation Union 1994), such as the Toromiro, retain genetic variability, and appropriate reintroduction sites exist. These taxa represent valid priorities for conservation management.